Substantiating EU citizenship: an unintended route to anti-establishment support

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between European Union citizenship and support for anti-establishment parties across the EU’s older and newer, post-communist democracies. By conceptually linking EU support to substantive EU citizenship, this study identifies the contingent nature of EU citizenship’s effect on support for anti-establishment parties. We conduct a multilevel regression analysis across 22 EU member-states, using data generated by a Eurobarometer survey conducted in 2018. This survey counts on support for EU coordinated foreign policy, in addition to conventional EU support measures, enabling an analysis at different levels of EU politics. Findings show that citizens’ support at these different levels depresses their support for anti-establishment parties across old democracies, yet increases it across new democracies. Hence, the effect of EU citizenship emerges as being contingent on whether citizens are in an old or a new, post-communist democracy of the EU, and on where the borders of the EU are drawn. This contingency has potential to be an instrument of deepening the emerging transnational cleavage between liberal, cosmopolitan and traditional, authoritarian values for old democracies and of manipulation by inward looking parochial, populist politics for new democracies. This will affect the nature of European politics and the future of integration.