Does governance-based adaptation capacity reduce human exposure to disasters? evidence from disaster-exposed OECD economies

Abstract

This study examines whether governance-based adaptation capacity reduces human exposure to natural disasters in 14 disaster-exposed OECD countries over the period 2000–2024. Using a two-way fixed-effects framework with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the analysis evaluates the joint roles of temperature anomalies, disaster frequency, and governance capacity in shaping the disaster-affected population. The results show that temperature anomalies have a nonlinear effect on human exposure, while disaster frequency increases disaster-affected population across all model specifications. By contrast, governance-based adaptation capacity reduces baseline exposure. In the preferred specification, the coefficient of governance capacity is negative (−0.983), whereas the interaction between disaster frequency and governance capacity is positive (0.071), indicating that institutional capacity lowers baseline vulnerability but does not fully offset the effect of repeated hazard occurrence. These findings suggest that governance-based adaptation plays a protective role, yet its effectiveness remains conditional on the scale and frequency of climate-related hazards. The results underline the importance of strengthening institutional capacity as part of broader disaster risk reduction and adaptation strategies.