Asymmetric threshold effects in the growth–current account deficit nexus: Evidence from Türkiye using quantile-on-quantile regression

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the structure of the relationship between economic growth and the current account deficit in the Turkish economy and how this relationship varies across different levels of growth. It is widely acknowledged in the literature that commonly used linear econometric models often fail to capture potential asymmetries and heterogeneities between variables. Therefore, this study employs the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression method, which allows simultaneous assessment of both dependent and independent variables across various quantile levels. The analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the period 2006:Q1 to 2023:Q3. The findings reveal that the relationship between the current account deficit and economic growth is asymmetric and quantile sensitive. In particular, rising current account deficits have a negative and statistically significant effect on growth at low levels of economic expansion. Conversely, this relationship tends to weaken or reverse at higher growth levels. These results reveal that when the current account deficit exceeds a certain threshold, it becomes unsustainable and acts as a drag on growth. The findings emphasise the need to design growth policies in alignment with external balance objectives.