Spatiotemporal variations in meteorological drought across the Mediterranean Region of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, meteorological drought across the Mediterranean Region of Turkey (MRT) was investigated using fuzzy c-means clustering and innovative trend analysis (ITA). To this end, long-term (1971–2021) observed precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations distributed across the MRT were used to cluster the region and calculate standardized precipitation index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month (SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12) accumulation periods. Moderate drought (MD), severe drought (SD), and extreme drought (ED) events, as well as their severity and duration, were determined at each station and cluster. The spatiotemporal variations in SPI showed that the study area has experienced mostly MD events in all seasons while there was also a significant number of SD and ED events during the study period. Considering SPI-3, Senirkent station, and considering SPI-6 and SPI-12, Dörtyol station have witnessed the maximum number of dry spells. The fuzzy cluster analysis revealed that the MRT can be examined in three clusters of the western coastal region, relatively low altitudes in the eastern region, and northern high altitudes that receive the lowest annual precipitation. The long-lasting MD, SD, and ED events were all observed in the western coastal cluster. The ITA at all clusters indicated that the number of MD, ED, and SD events has increased since 1995.