Chaos-based multigene genetic programming: a new hybrid strategy for river flow forecasting

Abstract

Chaos theory is integrated with Multi-Gene Genetic Programming (MGGP) engine as a new hybrid model for river flow forecasting. This is to be referred to as Chaos-MGGP and its performance is tested using daily historic flow time series at four gauging stations in two countries with a mix of both intermittent and perennial rivers. Three models are developed: (i) Local Prediction Model (LPM); (ii) standalone MGGP; and (iii) Chaos-MGGP, where the first two models serve as the benchmark for comparison purposes. The Phase-Space Reconstruction (PSR) parameters of delay time and embedding dimension form the dominant input signals derived from original time series using chaos theory and these are transferred to Chaos-MGGP. The paper develops a procedure to identify global optimum values of the PSR parameters for the construction of a regression-type prediction model to implement the Chaos-MGGP model. The inter-comparison of the results at the selected four gauging stations shows that the Chaos-MGGP model provides more accurate forecasts than those of stand-alone MGGP or LPM models.