http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12566/22 2026-04-28T10:58:25Z 2026-04-28T10:58:25Z Erkişi, Kemal http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12566/2472 2026-04-27T12:11:40Z 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z

The distributional consequences of globalization: a nonlinear analysis of Canada’s economic, social, and political dimensions Erkişi, Kemal This study examines the effects of globalization on income inequality with its economic, social, and political dimensions in the period 1995–2022, in the case of Canada. The model measures income inequality using the Gini Index as the dependent variable and incorporates three globalization dimensions, along with control variables like human capital, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and urban population growth. We employ Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods to assess long-term relationships. The study addresses the nonlinear effects of globalization’s economic, social, and political dimensions on income inequality. The findings indicate that economic and social globalization initially exacerbate income inequality, but eventually lead to improvements in income distribution as their effects reverse beyond a certain threshold. This demonstrates the nonlinear nature of these impacts on income distribution. Additionally, we find that human capital, foreign direct investment, and urban population growth reduce income inequality. However, GDP per capita exhibits a nonlinear relationship with income inequality, consistent with the Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Initially, GDP growth worsens income distribution, but at higher levels, it contributes to improving equality. This relationship was confirmed by the FMOLS estimates, but the CCR method did not confirm this result, suggesting that the impact of GDP on inequality should be interpreted with caution. Similarly, while FMOLS indicates a significant effect of political globalization on income inequality, the CCR method does not confirm this result, implying that the findings for political globalization should also be considered carefully. Overall, this study shows that economic and social globalization initially increase inequality, but their impact diminishes at higher levels. While human capital, foreign direct investment, and urban population growth all contribute to reducing inequality, these results reveal that when income equality is taken into consideration, globalization policies and economic growth strategies should be designed more carefully, with balancing policies aimed at reducing income inequality. In this context, a more detailed examination of the effects of different dimensions of globalization on income distribution will have important implications for policymakers.

2024-01-01T00:00:00Z Erkişi, Kemal Sarıtaş, Başak http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12566/2471 2026-04-21T08:07:57Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Economic output under a warming climate: non-linear damage effects and adaptive capacity in OECD countries Erkişi, Kemal; Sarıtaş, Başak This study examines the long-run effects of temperature anomalies on economic output in OECD countries, with a focus on non-linear damage patterns and the mitigating role of adaptive capacity. Using annual data for 38 OECD economies over 1995–2024, the analysis estimates panel models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors within a reduced-form damage-function framework and corroborates long-run robustness using panel FMOLS. The results indicate a non-linear temperature–output relationship: moderate temperature deviations are associated with higher output, but the marginal effect weakens as anomalies intensify, consistent with rising damages at larger deviations from historical norms. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the temperature–output response is substantially stronger and more non-linear in warm-climate OECD countries, with additional geographic heterogeneity between European and non-European OECD economies. The results further show that higher public investment and stronger health-system capacity are associated with reduced output sensitivity to temperature shocks, with this moderating role being especially pronounced in warmer climates. Taken together, these findings highlight infrastructure and health capacity as measurable, policy-relevant adaptation channels that strengthen macroeconomic resilience to climate variability in advanced economies.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Boğa, Semra Erkişi, Kemal http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12566/2470 2026-04-21T07:34:26Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Asymmetric threshold effects in the growth–current account deficit nexus: Evidence from Türkiye using quantile-on-quantile regression Boğa, Semra; Erkişi, Kemal This study aims to analyse the structure of the relationship between economic growth and the current account deficit in the Turkish economy and how this relationship varies across different levels of growth. It is widely acknowledged in the literature that commonly used linear econometric models often fail to capture potential asymmetries and heterogeneities between variables. Therefore, this study employs the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression method, which allows simultaneous assessment of both dependent and independent variables across various quantile levels. The analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the period 2006:Q1 to 2023:Q3. The findings reveal that the relationship between the current account deficit and economic growth is asymmetric and quantile sensitive. In particular, rising current account deficits have a negative and statistically significant effect on growth at low levels of economic expansion. Conversely, this relationship tends to weaken or reverse at higher growth levels. These results reveal that when the current account deficit exceeds a certain threshold, it becomes unsustainable and acts as a drag on growth. The findings emphasise the need to design growth policies in alignment with external balance objectives.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Erkişi, Kemal Boğa, Semra http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12566/2409 2025-12-29T08:28:49Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

The growth returns of health: investments, outcomes, and cointegrated development in Türkiye Erkişi, Kemal; Boğa, Semra This study examines the long-run relationship between health capital and economic growth in Türkiye from 2000 to 2023. We apply both Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) methods to analyze how health indicators stem from government health expenditures, life expectancy, and infant mortality, interact with traditional growth determinants composed of physical capital, labor force, and human capital to influence GDP. The results reveal three key findings: First, health investments yield substantial economic returns, with 1% increases in health spending and life expectancy associated with 0.10% and 0.14–0.19% GDP growth, respectively. Second, infant mortality reductions show particularly strong growth effects, confirming the economic urgency of child health interventions. Third, conventional factors remain pivotal, with capital accumulation (0.23 elasticity) and labor expansion (0.57–0.62 elasticity) driving growth alongside human capital improvements. These findings underscore the necessity of integrated policymaking that synergizes health, education, and economic strategies. We recommend prioritizing: (1) cost-effective health expenditures with dual productivity benefits, (2) equitable healthcare access to address regional disparities, and (3) human capital development to amplify health-growth linkages. The study provides empirical support for viewing health investments as fundamental drivers of sustainable development rather than mere social expenditures.

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